Ericsson Mobility Report Predicts Mobile Traffic to Double by 2030

The Ericsson Mobility Report from June 2025 details the significant growth and evolution within the mobile industry, with a strong focus on the expansion of 5G technology, the rise of Generative AI (GenAI), and shifts in mobile data consumption.

The Report paints a picture of an industry still accelerating, with a prediction for the global average data traffic per smartphone to increase from 19 GB/month in 2024 to around 37 GB/month in 2030.

But its not only data traffic that will see rapid increase within the next 5 years, its also the number of 5G subscriptions and the use of AI on smartphones as well.

Let’s see the most significant data points of the report below:

5G Adoption and Network Expansion:

• 5G subscriptions are projected to reach nearly 2.9 billion by the end of 2025, which will constitute one-third of all mobile subscriptions globally.
• By the end of 2030, 5G subscriptions are anticipated to hit 6.3 billion, representing two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions.
• As of the end of 2024, there were 2.3 billion 5G subscriptions worldwide. North America had the highest penetration at 71%, followed by North East Asia at 52%.
• Global 5G population coverage reached 55% by the end of 2024 and is expected to reach approximately 85% outside of mainland China by 2030.

Mobile Data Traffic

• Mobile-network data traffic (excluding FWA) grew 19 % YoY in Q1 2025.
• 5G networks carry 35 % of the total today, rising to an estimated 80 % in 2030.
• Global traffic expected to increase at a 17 % CAGR to 2030 as emerging AI-driven services add up to 260 EB of extra monthly load.
• Video content was responsible for 74% of all mobile data traffic at the end of 2024.

Usage per Smartphone

• Average monthly data consumption: 19 GB in 2024.
• Forecast to double to 37 GB by 2030 (Global average).
• The countries with the highest data usage per smartphone include India, Nepal, and Bhutan. In 2024 data usage in these countries was 32 GB per month per smartphone, and is predicted to reach 62 GB per month.

The primary drivers for this substantial growth in data usage include improved device capabilities, affordable data plans, more time spent on mobile services, and the increasing consumption of data-heavy content like video.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

• Just over half of mobile network operators now sell 5G FWA, up 27 % in a year.
• FWA forecast: ~350 million connections by 2030, making up more than 35 % of all new fixed-broadband additions.
• Monetisation trend: rapid shift to speed-based and service-tier tariffs.
• In a study of mobile service providers, 80% have an FWA offering, and 57% of all FWA service providers offer it over 5G.

Generative AI (GenAI) and New Devices:

• GenAI is becoming a key feature in smartphones, which is expected to drive the development of new devices and applications.
• The use of AI is also expanding to AR glasses, which will require enhanced network capabilities, particularly for uplink and latency.
• While GenAI traffic is currently a small fraction of total network data, its uplink traffic is significantly higher (26%) compared to typical mobile network traffic.

Cellular IoT outlook

• Cellular IoT connections reached ~4 billion in 2024; expected to top 7 billion by 2030 (≈11 % CAGR).
• Mix by 2030: 60 % 4G/5G broadband IoT; 40 % NB-IoT/LTE-M massive IoT.

Mobile Traffic Patterns:

• A small percentage of users generate a large portion of the traffic. In a sampled European network, the top 10% of subscribers (using over 20 GB/month) accounted for 65% of the total traffic.
• Between 2020 and 2024, there was a significant increase in traffic from cloud storage, video, and audio, while web browsing and file sharing declined.

Technology and Monetisation Themes

• Operators highlight FWA, network slicing and premium speed tiers as early 5G revenue upsides.
• First commercial examples of on-demand network slicing for live media production showcased.
• Generative-AI traffic profiles analysed; early planning for AI-native RAN optimisation and edge compute.
• Energy efficiency gains: 5G Stand-Alone deployments show up to 30 % lower energy per delivered bit versus legacy 4G.

Key Points to Remember

Ericsson’s 2025 numbers confirm that 5G is scaling faster than any previous mobile generation, while FWA, IoT and AI-related services are opening fresh revenue opportunities.

The challenge, the report notes, will be balancing capacity expansion with energy and spectrum efficiency as traffic volumes keep doubling every three years.

The bottom line of the Ericsson Mobility Report is that the mobile industry is transitioning from an era defined purely by speed and capacity to one centered on intelligent, reliable, and tailored connectivity.